Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Stock and Awe

Walt Disney Pictures
LATE THIS MORNING, the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- an arbitrary index of single-share stock values that for unclear reasons is used by the mass media as a barometer of economic strength -- hit an all-time high.

This should be a good thing, right?

The previous high was reached October 9, 2007.  Take a look at this chart to see what happened next.

I am by no means an economist, nor even a business-focused journalist or investor, but I know enough to realize today’s high means absolutely nothing.

On the one hand, we could be in for a big “correction” over the next couple of days.

On the other, we could be riding a new bull market long-term.

Or, as respected economist Stanley Drunkenmiller says, we are on the precipice of an economic collapse far worse than the Great Recession of 2007 - 2010 (which Drunkenmiller predicted, years in advance and with startling precision).

I tend to take a more measured but ultimately pessimistic view.  The data is pretty convincing: our aging population and broken Social Security system, combined with the thus-far catastrophic failure of 401(k)-type investing for folks just now reaching retirement age has left me under the impression that there’s at least a 50 percent chance I won’t be able to retire.  I mean, ever.  I may very well keel over while still working, or die in poverty once I am no longer considered employable.  The data show that many of you reading this may suffer a similar fate.

But hey, cheer up.  Maybe Jesus will come back before that happens and save us all first!


READ THIS
Would you like some more depressing economic news?  Here you go: middle-class folks like you and me are drowning!

My colleague Elizabeth Cohen has a stark look at what happened when an infertile couple’s surrogacy went terribly, horribly wrong.